Iran Protest Death Estimation (2026)
Quantitative Bias Analysis comparing 2026 protests to 2019 baseline
Internet blackout active since Jan 8, 2026
Parameters
Intensity Multiplier
2x
Duration (days)
6 days
Reporting Sensitivity
10% - 35%
Monte Carlo Iterations
Random Seed
Demographics
Assumptions for DALY/QALY calculations
Age Distribution
Default distribution based on 2019 data
Male Percentage
60%
Discounting
Discount Rate
3%
QALY Quality Weight
1.00
QALYs = DALYs (full health)
2019 BASELINE
Deaths (Ghafari):6,040
Official (Reuters):1,500
Cities:104
Duration:5 days
2026 CURRENT
Reported:12,000
Cities:111
Duration:6+ days
Median Adjusted Deaths
--
95% Credible Interval
--
Underreporting Factor
4x
Years of Life Lost
--
QALYs Lost
--
Economic Cost
--
Estimated Deaths Distribution (Adjusted for Underreporting)
Interpreting the 12,000 Reported Figure
| Reporting Sensitivity | Reported Deaths | True Deaths Estimate | Underreporting Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 12,000 | 120,000 | 10x |
| 15% | 12,000 | 80,000 | 6.7x |
| 20% | 12,000 | 60,000 | 5x |
| 25% | 12,000 | 48,000 | 4x |
| 30% | 12,000 | 40,000 | 3.3x |
Scenario Comparison
| Scenario | Intensity | Raw Median | Adjusted Median | 95% CrI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5x | 3,811 | 17,646 | [8,899 - 37,748] |
| Similar to 2019 | 1x | 7,666 | 35,533 | [17,042 - 77,268] |
| Moderate | 2x | 15,339 | 71,835 | [35,075 - 152,400] |
| Severe | 5x | 38,438 | 178,630 | [86,664 - 388,818] |
| Extreme | 10x | 76,309 | 350,798 | [175,354 - 767,399] |